אין תקווה לרוכשים: תחזית לחציון השני לשנת 2013

משרד האוצר פרסם השבוע כי בחודש מאי 2013 נמכרו במדינת ישראל 12 וחצי אלף יחידות דיור- שיא חודשי של עשר השנים האחרונות מאז שנת 2003. מחירי הדיור הגבוהים לא מרתיעים את הרוכשים ודווקא חשש מעלויות מחירים נוספות כתוצאה מהעלאת המע"מ והעלאות המסים הצפויות בשוק הנדל"ן גרמו לרוכשים והמשקיעים להזדרז ולרכוש דירות. אז מי בעצם אמר ששוק הנדל"ן בישראל בקיפאון?

תנאי השוק הנוכחיים בהם גובר הביקוש על ההיצע ממשיכים להכתיב את הקצב ופתרון לא נראה לעין. אין שום מהלך או תקווה שיכולה לגרום לרוכשים הפוטנציאליים להמתין. ברור כי מחירי הדירות ימשיכו להיות גבוהים מאוד, הירידה בהתחלות הבנייה ובשיווק הקרקעות תמשך והנטל על הרוכשים ומבקשי המשכנתאות בשל החמרת הבנקים וגזרות המס השונות רק יגבר.

אם בסוף שנת 2012 צפינו כי עליית המחירים והגדלת הפער שבין ההיצע לביקוש יימשכו, לא חזינו שלכך תתווסף עליית המע"מ, ההחמרה במיסים והפחתה ביכולת הרוכשים לקבל מימון. המסקנה המידית של כך היא כי דור הביניים, ההורים, יצטרכו להיפרד מעוד חסכונות, שהרי הם היחידים שאפשר להמשיך ולהיעזר בהם לרכישת דירה, בטח עבור זוגות צעירים.

בקרב המשקיעים קיימת יציבות בביקושים שכן אפיקי ההשקעה האחרים נותרים עבורם פחות אטרקטיביים ולמרות כל הגזרות המיסוייות, ישנה יציבות במגמת הרכישות שלהם, ואף עלייה קלה של 4%.

כך שלמעשה התחזית לחצי השני של שנת 2013 אופטימית עוד פחות ממחצית השנה הראשונה, וגם אם הגזירות והמיסים הראשונים יביאו לירידה בביקושים, היא תהיה זמנית בלבד והרוכשים יחזרו לשוק במהרה- לפני שתבוא עלינו עליית מחירים נוספת.

הכותבת היא עליזה כהן, מנכ"לית רשת התיווך 'רשף נכסים'

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