The-Pulse - חדשות הדופק של ישראל

כלכלני לאומי: התרחבות מתונה בצריכה הפרטית לצד חולשה בפעילות התעשייתית

התפרסמה הסקירה הכלכלית השבועית "השבוע במאקרו", של אגף הכלכלה בחטיבה הפיננסית של לאומי, בראשות ד"ר גיל בפמן. עיקרי הדברים: המדד המשולב לבחינת מצב המשק – התרחבות מתונה בצריכה הפרטית לצד חולשה בפעילות התעשייתית - המדד המשולב לבחינת מצב המשק עלה בחודש נובמבר בכ-0.2% (לעומת החודש הקודם) וב-12 החודשים האחרונים הסתכמה עלייתו בכ-2.9%

כלים

מדובר בהאטה בקצב הצמיחה בהשוואה לאוקטובר, ואף ביחס לשיעור הצמיחה החודשי הממוצע ב-12 החודשים האחרונים.

בהסתכלות ארוכת טווח, נראה כי קצב הצמיחה השנתי של המדד המשולב (המשקף את פעילות הסקטור העסקי) מצוי כיום סביב 3%, שיעור הנמוך מהממוצע ארוך הטווח (כ-4.5% בעשור האחרון). דהיינו, ניכרת "ירידת מדרגה" בקצב הצמיחה.

זאת, ככל הנראה, עקב ההאטה בגידול בנפח הסחר העולמי בארבע השנים האחרונות, לצד ההשפעות המצטברות של התיסוף הריאלי של השקל בשמונה השנים האחרונות, אשר פגעו ביצוא הישראלי בשנים האחרונות.

עוד נושאים שעלו השבוע:

העלייה בהיקף יצוא הסחורות לארצות הברית ולמדינות אסיה עשויה להימשך, תוך ירידה ביצוא למדינות אירופהההשקעות הפיננסיות של המשקיעים המוסדיים בחו"ל מגודרות בחלקן, על כן פוטנציאל הפיחות של השקל מוגבל

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בנק לאומי

הכלכלה הישראלית

שוק ההון

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